Watermain breaks disrupt water service and block roadways. The mitigative trenching and street repavement are often costly to utilities. To better understand failure risk and watermain renewal
requirements within the City of Toronto, AECOM developed probabilistic, deterministic models that
anticipate watermain breaks and determine the appropriate economical treatment process. By predicting the failure rate, the models recommend one of three optional treatment processes: cathodic protection, structural lining or replacement. The models were then enhanced for use as a capital expenditure forecasting tool to achieve reductions in failure by a target deadline.